INDUSTRIAL PARK (IP) LAND
SUPPLY: TEMPORARY PAUSE AMID TRANSITION PERIOD
In Q2 2026, the industrial land market in the Southern Key Economic Zone recorded no new supply. Following the provincial annexation, the majority of projects in HCMC, Dong Nai, and Tay Ninh remained focused on completing planning, investment procedures, and infrastructure development, resulting in slower-than-expected project launches.
Total supply remained at 36,063 ha, unchanged QoQ and increasing by 4.6% YoY, supported by previously operational projects. This period indicates that the market is establishing a foundation for the next development period upon completion of administrative procedures.
DEMAND: CONTINUED EXPANSION DRIVEN BY DEVELOPMENT SPACES
Demand continued to improve in Q2 2026, reflecting FDI enterprises' production expansion and the shift in demand from central areas to localities with greater development potentials. As available land in Ho Chi Minh City becomes increasingly constrained, Dong Nai and Tay Ninh have emerged as preferred destinations, benefiting from larger land banks and increasingly improved infrastructure connectivity.
The overall occupancy rate reached 76.3% (+1.4% QoQ, +2.2% YoY), indicating stable absorption momentum. HCMC maintained the highest occupancy rate at 86.1% (+1.4% QoQ, +3.3% YoY), supported by its central position and stable demand. Dong Nai reached 73.1% (+1.3% QoQ, +0.3% YoY), while Tay Ninh reached 60.9% (+1.6% QoQ, +2.8% YoY). The redistribution of demand among provinces shows that the market is expanding in a more balanced manner rather than concentrating on a few traditional areas.
RENT: DIFFERENTIATED BY LAND AVAILABILITY
Rents remained high, although different trends between provinces are becoming clearer, dependent not only on market demand but are also affected by limited land and the speed of infrastructure development in each area.
The average asking rent reached approx. 186.4 USD/sqm/lease term (-0.5% QoQ, +1.7% YoY). Dong Nai recorded the highest level at 189.6 USD/sqm/lease term (+0.3% QoQ, +1.9% YoY), maintaining a stable upward trend. HCMC reached 187.5 USD/sqm/lease term (+1.2% QoQ, +6.8% YoY) due to limited supply. In contrast, Tay Ninh declined to 179.6 USD/sqm/lease term (-4.8% QoQ, -6.8% YoY), reflecting a competitive pricing strategy to attract new projects amid abundant land banks.
MARKET OUTLOOK: TRANSITIONING FROM PREPARATION TO EXPANSION PHASE
Q2 2026 marks a transition from the planning review phase to the preparation for large-scale project implementations. Dong Nai is accelerating the construction of three key IPs with a total area of 2,240 ha. Tay Ninh approved a portfolio of 49 IPs covering approximately 16,000 ha, while HCMC is promoting investment for 14 new IPs with an area of 3,833 ha.
These moves indicate that future supply is being prepared concurrently across all three provinces but with distinct strategic directions. Dong Nai focuses on enhancing the quality of investment attraction. Tay Ninh is expanding its industrial land bank scale, while HCMC targets higher value-added industries. The complementary roles among these provinces are expected to create a sustainable growth engine for the entire region in the 2026-2028 period.
READY-BUILT FACTORY (RBF) (*)
SUPPLY: SLIGHT INCREASE FOCUSED ON TAY NINH
The market recorded an additional 56,000 sqm of new leasable area in Tay Ninh in Q2 2026, bringing the total existing supply to 6.85 million sqm of NLA, increasing by 0.8% QoQ and 4.6% YoY. The stable supply growth rate and balanced distribution among the three main areas of the Southern Key Economic Zone show that development is not focused on a single area but spreads across the whole region.
DEMAND: REMAINED STABLE
Leasing activity remained stable in Q2 2026. Occupancy levels across areas stayed high, with Dong Nai reaching 94.3%, while HCMC and Tay Ninh recorded 89.7% and 93.7%, respectively.
Notably, compared to the same period last year, Tay Ninh showed the strongest growth with occupancy rates increasing by 10% YoY, higher than HCMC and Dong Nai, which saw increases of 5% and 4% YoY, respectively. This difference shows that Tay Ninh is attracting more leasing demand than other areas, while HCMC and Dong Nai keep their demand stable.
RENT: STEADY GROWTH
Rents kept a slight upward trend. The average rent for the whole market reached 4.9 USD/sqm/month (+0.1% QoQ, +2.5% YoY). However, price trends among provinces showed clear differences. HCMC led at 5.1 USD/sqm/month (+0.4% QoQ, +4.1% YoY). Dong Nai recorded 4.9 USD/sqm/month (+0.3% QoQ, +1.6% YoY). Tay Ninh, the new satellite market, recorded 4.6 USD/sqm/month (-0.4% QoQ, +1.8% YoY).
The market has entered a phase of stable growth, where growth depends not only on expanding area but also focuses on quality, ESG standards, and construction speed. The price difference between provinces reflects the shift in industrial locations: the traditional center (HCMC) keeps high prices thanks to completed infrastructure, while the satellite market (Tay Ninh) competes on cost and development potential.
MARKET OUTLOOK: MARKET EXPANSION AND REGIONAL RESTRUCTURING
High-quality FDI from the electronics, semiconductor, and logistics sectors continues to support good absorption rates. This trend is expected to continue in the 2026-2028 period, as the market adds 1.1 million sqm of new RBF supply.
New supply is mainly located in HCMC, accounting for 65%, followed by Tay Ninh (29%) and Dong Nai (6%). This structure reflects a strategic shift in industrial space. HCMC keeps its central position due to completed infrastructure, and Tay Ninh rises due to its large land bank with competitive costs. There are four main drivers for this outlook: (1) key infrastructure (Long Thanh International Airport, Ring Road 3, expressways, Cai Mep port) enhancing connectivity; (2) FDI is expected to remain strong; (3) tenant demand focused on quality and ESG standards; (4) major developers continues to expand their portfolios.
READY-BUILT WAREHOUSE (RBW)
SUPPLY: SUPPLY HELD STEADY WITH NO NEW PROJECT ADDED
In Q2 2026, total RBW supply in the Southern Key Economic Zone remained unchanged at approximately 6.6 mil sqm, with no new projects recorded during the quarter, while expanding 3.4% YoY. HCMC remained the leading hub with nearly 45% of total stock, followed by Dong Nai (32%) and Tay Ninh (23%). The limited supply additions reflected developers' conservative pace of expansion, aligning stock with the actual demand while prioritizing the filling of vacant space carried over from the previous cycles.
DEMAND: LIMITED QUARTERLY MOVEMENT, OCCUPANCY REMAINED STABLE
The overall occupancy rate across the RBW market reached 91.6% in Q2 2026, edging down 0.2% QoQ while increased by 12% YoY. Leasing activity remained relatively stable during the quarter, with no significant changes in occupied space across the three key submarkets.
In which, extended HCMC continued to record the highest occupancy at 98.7% (-0.3% QoQ), reflecting its established industrial base and sustained tenant demand. While Dong Nai and Tay Ninh remained unchanged at 88.4% and 81.7% respectively. Overall, the RBW market remained resilient, supported by consistently high occupancy levels despite limited QoQ leasing momentum.
RENT: STABLE PRICE LEVELS ACROSS THE MARKETS
Average asking rents across the RBW market reached approximately 4.6 USD/sqm/month in Q2 2026, increasing by 1.0% QoQ and 5.5% YoY, indicating a balanced pricing environment with limited short-term fluctuations. Rental performance remained broadly consistent across submarkets, with Tay Ninh recording the highest asking rent at approximately 4.8 USD/sqm/month, followed by Dong Nai (4.7 USD/sqm/month), while extended HCMC remained lower at around 4.5 USD/sqm/month.
The lower average rent in extended HCMC reflects the broader pricing range following regional consolidation, while rental levels in Dong Nai and Tay Ninh continue to be supported by the overall maturity of their industrial markets and increasingly developed industrial ecosystems.
MARKET OUTLOOK: WATERWAY DEVELOPMENT EMERGING AS KEY GROWTH DRIVER
Beyond major road infrastructure projects, inland waterway development is expected to become an increasingly important driver of warehouse demand. Being the three key economic growth poles of the Southeast region, HCMC, Dong Nai and Tay Ninh have formed an integrated development triangle, underpinned by major transport and industrial infrastructure. In this context, the Southern Waterways and Logistics Corridors project (USD 163.3 million, commenced in late 2026) is expected to enhance multimodal connectivity, reduce transport costs and ease road congestion, strengthening the competitiveness of riverside RBWs in Dong Nai while reinforcing HCMC's role as the region's primary logistics hub. Meanwhile, Tay Ninh is well positioned to benefit from strengthening regional connectivity and expanding cross-border trade, further supporting warehouse demand over the medium to long term. Supported by these favorable fundamentals, the RBW market is expected to add over 680,000 sqm of new supply between 2026 and 2028, reflecting developers' confidence in sustained occupier demand.
