Portugal's economy continued its positive trajectory in the first quarter of 2026, demonstrating sustained momentum. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.3%, a figure that notably outperforms the Euro Area average. Inflationary pressures have eased, with the rate moderating to 2.3% in 2025. Projections indicate that inflation will stabilise below the 2.0% mark in the coming years, although a temporary increase to 2.6% is anticipated for 2026. The labour market has shown resilience, with the unemployment rate expected to fall to 5.7%. However, the pace of job creation is projected to slow, with an anticipated growth of 1.3%.
Demand Overview
In the first quarter of 2026, the industrial and logistics sector recorded 13 new occupancy deals totalling 65,110 sq.m This figure marks a 16% decrease compared to the same period last year, and the average deal size also declined slightly to 5,010 sq.m Leasing activity was geographically balanced, with both the Greater Lisbon and Greater Porto regions each accounting for over one-third of the total take-up. Key transactions for the quarter included several significant deals. In the West & Tagus Valley, Panattoni Park Lisboa-Santarém secured a major lease of 17,900 sq.m by a confidential tenant. The Greater Oporto region saw multiple notable deals, including the sale of an 11,030 sq.m facility in Lusopark, a 6,140 sq.m lease in Ermida Santo Tirso, and a 5,890 sq.m lease in Panattoni Park Valongo to THC Transportes e Logística. Meanwhile, in Greater Lisbon, a Frielas warehouse was sold in an 8,000 sq.m transaction. This distribution of take-up across key logistics corridors indicates sustained occupier interest in both established and emerging submarkets.
Vacancy Trends
The vacancy rate in the Greater Lisbon area experienced a slight increase, rising to 4.3%. Nevetheless, he persistent shortage of high-quality logistics supply available in the market continues to be evident.
Rent Trends
Prime rents continued their upward trend during the first quarter of 2026, driven by the ongoing imbalance between supply and demand. In Greater Lisbon, prime rents within the Castanheira-Azambuja corridor (zone 1) rose to €5.70/sq.m/month. In Greater Porto, the Port of Leixões–Airport area (zone 10) saw prime rents climb to €6.00 per square metre per month. This sustained rental growth reflects the heightened competition among occupiers for best-in-class logistics facilities.
Total and Under Construction Pipeline
Development activity in the sector remains strong. In Q1 2026 alone, 55,900 sq.m of new logistics space were delivered, including significant projects like Panattoni Park Santarém and Canelas Park. Looking ahead, the construction pipeline is substantial. A total of 762,600 sq.m is scheduled for completion over the next three years, with 394,000 sq.m already under active construction. Notable projects in this pipeline include the Northern Lisbon Logistics Platform (Phase III), Malveira Prime Logistics, and Panattoni Park Lisbon-City. This robust pipeline signals strong investor confidence in the medium-term fundamentals of Portugal's industrial and logistics sector.
