Greater China Retail Supply/Demand Trends 2026 — Diversified Demands Drive Growth

Cushman & Wakefield today released its annual Greater China Retail Supply/Demand Trends report. According to the report, by Q2 2026, the total prime retail property stock in the 15 major cities the firm tracks in Greater China reached 123.1 million sq m. Supported by policies to boost consumption, new growth drivers in consumption continue to emerge. However, influenced by subdued consumer confidence, the overall average vacancy rate across the 15 major cities rose slightly to 11.2% in Q2 2026.

 

Duke Zhen, Managing Director, Head of Retail Services, China, Cushman & Wakefield, said, “Although the growth of total retail sales of consumer goods has moderated, sales of services have maintained strong resilience, indicating that China’s consumption structure is shifting. The price-quality value and emotional experiences are now the key drivers of consumer purchases, pushing the transformation of the consumer market. It is therefore imperative for retailers and brands to understand these evolving consumer needs and to adapt their strategies swiftly to capture new growth opportunities.”

 

The consumption structure in China has gradually shifted from a goods-focused pattern to a more balanced mix of goods and services. To meet increasingly diverse consumer demands, the retail sector has been actively introducing new business models, consumption scenarios, service offerings, and retail formats. In terms of supply and demand, several key trends stand out in 2026: 

 

 

China is continuing to roll out special consumption‑boosting initiatives and to implement policies to safeguard people’s wellbeing. The combined effect of these stimulus policies is expected to sustain steady momentum in the retail property market in Greater China. 

 

 

As at the first half of 2026, total retail stock in Beijing stood at 19.53 million sq m, of which shopping centers accounted for 17.65 million sq m.

 

Beijing has continued to deepen its development as an international consumption hub in recent years, with the retail market’s environment significantly enhanced through urban renewal initiatives. Alongside ongoing renovations and upgrades at older properties, several landmark projects have commenced on a path of transformation and revitalization in the last year. 

 

More than 500,000 sq m of new supply is scheduled to enter the market in H2 2026. Economic headwinds combined with weak consumer spending have exerted significant pressures on tenant recruitment. Looking ahead, the overall pace of new market supply is expected to slow further, with some projects adopting phased openings. 

 

 

Ten new projects were completed and made their grand debuts in H1 2026, injecting approximately 1.22 million sq m of new retail space into the market. By the end of Q2 2026, the total stock in Shanghai’s overall mid- to high-end shopping center market reached 27.18 million sq m, up 4.48% q-o-q.

 

During the past year, retailers across sectors continued to expand, and several new brands made their debuts in Shanghai. Among all retail trades, the F&B, fashion, pop culture toys, sports, entertainment, and smart home sectors were the most active. The prime area vacancy rate stood at 6.56%, while the emerging area rate was 10.50%.

 

Looking ahead, leasing demand is likely to remain robust, with both international and domestic brands continuing to select Shanghai as a preferred location for flagship stores and first-store openings citywide.

 

 

Shenzhen welcomed 460,000 sq m of prime retail supply during the past year. The new retail supply signals a positive route for Shenzhen’s development into a multi-tiered commercial consumption city. 

 

Brand expansion has remained cautious due to fragile demand growth. The overall prime mall vacancy rate rose to 9.2%. Mature prime location malls enjoyed a footfall advantage, with rental levels remaining firm. But malls within the growth stage trimmed rents to boost occupancy, resulting in the citywide average monthly prime rental level falling to RMB693.5 per sq m.

 

Looking forward through 2027, 1.1 million sq m of new supply is scheduled to enter the market. The cross-border consumption and port economies are expected to support enhancements in Shenzhen’s commerce, culture and tourism markets.  

 

 

Through 2025 and H1 2026, six prime shopping malls opened, adding more than 500,000 sq m of new supply and pushing total prime stock to 6.3 million sq m. The high-end positioned Changlong-Wanbo and Baietan clusters are cementing their status with flagship projects, reinforcing the city’s "5+2+4" multi-core commercial framework.

 

Brands have maintained cautious expansion, with the citywide vacancy rate edging up 0.1 percentage points y-o-y to 9.3%. Rent concessions dragged the average monthly rental level down 7.5% y-o-y to RMB622.5 per sq m.

 

1.55 million sq m of new prime retail space is set to open through mid-2026 to 2027 and will impact the Guangzhou market, pressuring vacancy rates. Nevertheless, supply-side upgrades and financial initiative support are set to bolster the market outlook.

 

 

During the H2 2025 to H1 2026 period, Chengdu’s prime retail property market recorded no new supply, with total stock remaining stable at approximately 8.5 million sq m.

 

Softening new supply and continued leasing efforts supported market strengthening, with the citywide prime retail vacancy rate falling 0.4 percentage points y-o-y to 8.5%. However, amid cautious consumer sentiment and intensifying competition among shopping centers, prime retail rents fell by 0.6% y-o-y to RMB583.1 per sq m per month.

 

Approximately 550,000 sq m of prime shopping mall supply is expected to enter Chengdu from H2 2026 to 2028. Around 250,000 sq m of the pipeline will be located in the emerging Tianfu New Area, further strengthening the area’s retail ecosystem. 

 

 

Sustained growth in visitor arrivals and resilient local consumption sentiment have continued to support steady growth in Hong Kong’s retail market over the past year. The city’s overall retail sales marked fourteen consecutive months of y-o-y growth in June 2026, with total sales for the H1 2026 period growing 9.6% y-o-y. 

 

The overall high street vacancy rate dropped to 5.4% in Q2 2026 from 9.7% a year earlier. Across core districts, Causeway Bay and Central have both registered zero vacancies for two consecutive quarters. As a result, Hong Kong Island continued to lead a recovery in high street retail rents. F&B rents across districts remained under pressure due to high availability. 

 

Looking ahead, steady recovery is expected in the city’s retail market through the remainder of 2026, with low single-digit rental growth projected across core districts. 

 

 

Taipei’s retail market remained stable in 2025, supported by domestic consumption and tourism. LaLaport Nangang and Dream Plaza in Xinyi added dining and shopping options. Brands remained positive on expansion, targeting prime locations for visibility and customer engagement.

 

In H1 2026, rents across major retail areas were stable. Zhongxiao vacancy remained at around 7% to 9%, while Zhongshan-Nanjing and Ximen stayed at around 4% to 5%.

 

Looking ahead, economic conditions and tourism should support the market, although outbound travel may divert some spending. Far Eastern Garden City’s full opening in H2 2026 will further broaden retail choices. Retail areas are also expected to develop more distinct identities, with brands targeting locations aligned with their positioning and customers.

 

Please click here to download the full report.

 

Cushman & Wakefield (NYSE: CWK) is a leading global commercial real estate services firm for occupiers and investors with approximately 53,000 employees in over 350 offices and nearly 60 countries. In Greater China, a network of 23 offices serves local markets across the region. In 2025, the firm reported revenue of $10.3 billion across its core services of Valuation, Consulting, Project & Development Services, Capital Markets, Project & Occupier Services, Industrial & Logistics, Retail, and others. Built around the belief that Better never settles, the firm receives numerous industry and business accolades for its award-winning culture. For additional information, visit www.cushmanwakefield.com.