Retail Market in Poland – Marketbeat Q3 2026: A Year That Could Go Down in History

The third quarter of 2026 marked a groundbreaking period for Poland's retail market. Development activity is set to reach its highest annual levels in over a decade, while investor interest in retail assets has significantly increased. Poland continues to strengthen its position as one of the most dynamic retail markets in the region, backed by resilient consumer spending, the highest prime rents in Central and Eastern Europe, and an increasing presence of international capital.

The latest Marketbeat data confirms that the sector is in an expansion phase. Supply structures are shifting towards retail parks, development activity is focused on smaller regional cities, and capital is consistently seeking assets that generate stable income in convenience formats.

Supply and Development Activity: Heading for the Best Results in Over a Decade

In Q3 2026, approximately 126,000 sq m of new modern retail space was delivered to the market. This result surpassed the volume from the same period last year and was comparable to 2024 levels. The total stock of modern retail space in Poland currently stands at around 17.5 million sq m of GLA.

Retail parks once again dominated new supply, reinforcing a structural trend observed over recent years. Key openings this quarter included:

• OTO Park, Siemianowice Śląskie: 20,500 sq m GLA
• S1, Rybnik: 19,500 sq m GLA
• Sekunda Retail Park, Włoszczowa: 10,300 sq m GLA

Extensions and refurbishments of existing properties accounted for 32% of the space delivered in Q3. Property owners are increasingly repositioning mature assets to maintain competitiveness and capture additional demand.

The development pipeline remains strong, with approximately 765,000 sq m of modern retail space under construction. Major ongoing projects include:

• Redkom Retail Park, Tarnów: 35,000 sq m
• BIG, Piła: 24,000 sq m
• Świderek Retail Park, Otwock: 23,100 sq m

Notably, 63% of the space under construction is in towns with fewer than 100,000 residents, located outside major urban centres.

Supply activity is expected to accelerate by year-end, with developers planning to deliver up to 300,000 sq m in Q4 2026. This would bring the total annual supply to over 600,000 sq m, marking the highest yearly result in over a decade.

Demand and New Brand Entrants

Tenant demand remained robust throughout Q3. Eight new brands launched physical stores in Poland, five of which were in the fashion sector:

• kay/day and Kappahl baby: Swedish brands from the Kappahl Group
• Beverly Hills Polo Club: American fashion brand
• VILA: Danish fashion brand
• Coosh: Ukrainian clothing brand

The market also welcomed Etnika, a UAE-based brand offering furniture and home décor. ShockPrice reintroduced its off-price store format, while Polish furniture brand Selsey opened its first physical store. These debuts highlight the growing interest in value-based formats and the continued entry of digital-native brands into brick-and-mortar retail.

Macroeconomic Environment

The Polish economy remains resilient compared to the rest of Europe. In Q2 2026, GDP grew by 3.9% year-on-year, accelerating compared to earlier in the year. However, inflation rose to 4.0% year-on-year in September, the highest level since June 2025.

The average gross monthly salary in the enterprise sector increased by 5.6% year-on-year in August, reaching 9,259.5 PLN. This supported a 3.8% year-on-year rise in retail sales in constant prices. Growth rates varied across sectors:

• Furniture, electronics, and appliances: +10.6% year-on-year
• Pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and orthopaedic equipment: +6.2% year-on-year
• Textiles, clothing, and footwear: -2.7% year-on-year, following a 1.7% decline in July

Consumer sentiment slightly improved. The current consumer confidence indicator (BWUK) rose to -10.8 in September, while the forward-looking consumer confidence indicator (WWUK) stabilised at -7.9. Sentiment in Poland remains more optimistic than the EU and eurozone averages, although households are becoming more selective with discretionary spending.

Footfall and Turnover

Shopping centre footfall increased by 0.8% year-on-year between January and August 2026. After a weak April (-5.7% year-on-year), traffic gradually recovered, rising by 0.7% in May, 5.0% in June, 1.5% in July, and 1.0% in August.

Turnover showed a stronger growth trend. Average turnover per shopping centre was nearly 5% higher than the previous year during the same period. After a sharp drop in April (-10.9% year-on-year), turnover grew by 6.5% in May and 3.0% in June, stabilising at last year’s levels in July and August. The faster growth in turnover compared to footfall suggests higher spending per visit.

Prime Rents: Leading the CEE Region

Prime rents for top retail units remained stable quarter-on-quarter, with a slight adjustment only on high streets:

• Shopping centres: €180 per sq m/month for prime units of around 100 sq m, the highest level in the CEE region. Poland overtook the Czech Republic in 2024.
• Retail parks: €19.50 per sq m/month, also the highest in the CEE region.
• High streets: Around €94 per sq m/month. In Prague, where the high street market is more developed, prime rents reach approximately €235 per sq m/month.

Investment Market: Significant Acceleration

Investor interest in Poland’s retail sector remained strong. In Q3 2026, 10 transactions were completed, totalling approximately €485 million. This result significantly exceeded the average quarterly volume of recent years. The retail sector accounted for 28% of Poland’s total investment volume, ranking third after the industrial (32%) and office (31%) sectors.

Two standout portfolio transactions included:

• Ares Management Corporation acquired a portfolio of 125 Intermarché and Bricomarché stores from the Muszkieterowie Group for around €200 million, one of the most significant deals in the retail sector in recent years.
• Appeninn Asset Management Holding Plc. and Indotek Group acquired the Dekada portfolio, comprising 11 retail parks and shopping centres in regional cities, for approximately €105 million.

These transactions highlight strong demand for portfolios anchored by grocery and DIY operators, as well as well-performing assets in smaller and mid-sized towns offering stable cash flows. Capitalisation rates for prime assets stand at 6.00% for retail parks, 6.65% for shopping centres, and 6.95% for retail warehouses.

Year-to-date retail sector transaction volumes are nearly double those of the entire 2025 figure. Total investment volumes across all commercial real estate sectors exceeded last year’s results after just three quarters.

Outlook: 2026 as a Landmark Year

Poland’s retail market is on track for a record-breaking year in 2026. Supply is expected to exceed 600,000 sq m—the highest in over a decade—while investment volumes could be among the strongest in recent years. Prime rents remain the highest in the region, consumer spending shows resilience, and international capital is actively pursuing large portfolio deals.

The key challenge lies in the absorption rate of new space in smaller towns. Asset quality, tenant mix, and the fundamental strength of catchment areas will increasingly determine which properties outperform. For investors and property owners, Poland remains a market with significant depth, liquidity, and long-term growth potential.